How to Calculate Your Potential Winnings From NBA Moneyline Bets

Walking up to the sportsbook window or opening your betting app, the sheer volume of numbers can be overwhelming. Point spreads, over/unders, and those three-digit numbers with plus and minus signs—it’s easy to feel lost. But if you’re like me, sometimes you just want to keep it simple: who’s going to win the game? That’s where NBA moneyline bets come in. No fussing with margins of victory, just a straightforward pick. The tricky part, and where many casual bettors slip up, is understanding exactly how much you stand to win or lose. I’ve been calculating these payouts for years, and I can tell you, it’s not always as intuitive as it seems. Let’s break it down, because knowing your potential return is the first step to betting with confidence.

I remember placing one of my first moneyline bets on a seemingly sure thing—the Lakers at home against a struggling team. The odds were -280, and I figured a win was a win. But when I won, the payout was… underwhelming. I had risked $28 to win $10. That’s when it clicked for me. The negative moneyline odds, like -280, tell you how much you need to risk to win a standard $100. To calculate your potential winnings on a favorite, you use the formula: (100 / Absolute Value of the Odds) * Your Wager. So for my -280 bet with a $28 wager, it was (100 / 280) * 28, which equals exactly $10. It’s clean, it’s mathematical, but it can feel restrictive, almost like the technical stutters in a game I recently played, "Frank Stone." You’re moving along smoothly, immersed in the action, and then—a jarring hiccup. That’s what betting heavy favorites can be like; the payoff is often so small it barely feels like a win, pulling you out of the thrill of being right, just as a frame rate drop pulls you out of a narrative. It’s a legacy issue in some game studios, and frankly, it’s a legacy issue for bettors who chase big names without checking the price.

Now, on the other side, you have the underdogs. This is where the magic—and the real calculation—happens. Positive moneyline odds, like +380, tell you how much you would win on a $100 bet. The formula here is even simpler: (Odds / 100) * Your Wager. If you put $30 on a +380 underdog and they pull off the upset, you’re looking at (380 / 100) * 30 = $114 in profit, plus your original $30 back. That’s a total return of $144. This is where the calculus gets exciting. I once bet $75 on a Knicks team listed at +420 against the Bucks. They won outright, and that single bet netted me $315 in pure profit. It felt glorious, a seamless, high-reward transition that paid off for the risk. It’s the polar opposite of those frustrating technical issues; it’s the game running perfectly on all cylinders. But here’s the thing—just like in game development, where building on a newer engine doesn’t always fix underlying problems, simply betting on underdogs isn’t a guaranteed fix for profit. The reason the odds are high is that the outcome is less likely. Over the last NBA season, underdogs of +350 or higher only won about 18% of the time, a stat I keep pinned on my desk. You have to be selective, or you’ll burn through your bankroll waiting for those long-shot hits.

Let’s get more practical with a real-game scenario from last season. The Denver Nuggets, at home, were a -320 favorite against the Houston Rockets, who were sitting at +260. If you were confident in the Nuggets and wagered $100, your potential profit would be only about $31.25. That’s a massive risk for a minimal return. A $100 bet on the Rockets, however, would yield a $260 profit. This disparity is the heart of moneyline betting. You’re not just predicting a winner; you’re evaluating whether the potential payout justifies the risk. I have a personal rule now: I rarely bet on a favorite with odds worse than -150 unless I’m combining it in a parlay. The math just doesn’t get my blood pumping. It’s a preference, I know, but it’s saved me from countless low-reward victories that feel almost as bad as a loss. It’s like preferring a slightly rougher-looking indie game that runs smoothly over a visually stunning AAA title that stutters at every load screen. The core experience is just better.

Of course, the calculations are useless without context. The odds aren’t just random numbers; they reflect the implied probability of an outcome. A -200 favorite has an implied probability of about 66.7% to win (calculated as 200 / (200 + 100)). A +200 underdog has an implied probability of 33.3% (100 / (200 + 100)). The sportsbook builds its margin—the vig—into these numbers, so the total implied probability for both sides of a game will always add up to more than 100%, usually around 102-105%. This is their edge. My edge comes from spotting when my own assessed probability is higher than the implied probability in the odds. If I think the Celtics have a 70% chance to win, but the moneyline is -150 (implying 60%), that’s a value bet. This is the analytical depth that separates recreational betting from a more serious approach. It requires work, but it’s the only way to profit consistently.

In the end, calculating your potential winnings from an NBA moneyline bet is a fundamental skill, but it’s just the entry point. It’s the basic gameplay loop. The real mastery, much like hoping a developer finally irons out those persistent frame-rate issues in their next release, lies in moving beyond the simple math and developing a sense for value. It’s about knowing when a -300 favorite is a trap and when a +400 longshot is actually worth a small flyer. For me, the joy isn’t in the safe, low-yield bets; it’s in the calculated risks that, when they hit, feel as smooth and rewarding as a perfectly optimized game. So next time you look at a moneyline, do the quick math, but then ask yourself the more important question: is this number telling the whole story, or is there an opportunity hiding in plain sight? My bankroll and my gut have often told me it’s the latter.